Confronting India Will Not Deliver What America Wants
When a bully on a playground needs to establish dominance, they don’t go after the person most likely to beat them in a fight. They go after the person they know isn’t an immediate threat. The bully knows the second biggest kid can take them on, but witnessing what the bully does to the weakest kid makes the second biggest kid reconsider.
As America witnesses China expand in Africa on land economically and in the Pacific military, as they see Russia roll through Ukraine while European countries pay TikTok influencers to spread propaganda, it is time to make a choice.
Take on the immediate threat or the weakest kid on the playground?
Here’s a better question; what if the weakest kid isn’t so weak?
The West is boldly proclaiming that it will make Russia a pariah state. However, most of the world does not see it that way.
Nuclear powers like India, the world’s largest democracy, have not joined in the campaign to sanction and isolate Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. This is causing the United States to consider whether they can intimidate them “diplomatically” into taking a stance.
In fact, they’re currently negotiating deals for India to receive Russian natural gas for Indian rupees. America won’t be happy with that, and will absolutely begin to issue threats to get them to reverse the decision if it happens.
The US has already clumsily threatened to sanction India for its Russian weapons purchases, which has been part of India’s long-standing military relations with Russia that dates back to the Cold War when it was the Soviet Union’s largest strategic partner.
Now, the US is finding out that Russia is not so isolated, the second biggest kid on the block and the kid who appears weakest may in fact have each other’s back. It has the tacit support of many non-Western states in the Global South. Chief among them are China and India. The funny part is that the US is supposedly pivoting to Asia, though its obsession with Russia may delay that move.
Moreover, India is generally perceived as a potential balancing partner against China, as evidenced by its membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) comprising of Australia, India, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
By threatening sanctions, India will likely not cooperate with the US in containing China. In other words, the second biggest kid and the “weakest” kid on the playground could team up to face the bully.
We’re entering a multipolar world and US elites would be wise to recognize that and adjust accordingly.
No one wants the entire playground to turn against them.
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