The problem with an overt anti-insurgent campaign is that many Mexican citizens would side with the cartels and it could easily turn into another Afghanistan style quagmire. It’s not so easy to determine who’s “in” a criminal organization and who’s not especially in the rural areas where they basically run everything and act as defacto governments. The fallout would mean a gigantic stream of asylum seekers into the US similar to those we’ve seen into Europe from similar military campaigns. As soon as the US declares the cartels to be terrorist organizations (which they obviously are) every Mexican citizen would have legal justification to apply for asylum in the US.
Despite these challenges I think that it is highly likely that the US will intervene. As the CJNG pushes farther up north and diversifies the criminal markets they will inevitably bump heads US law enforcement and organized crime which will have no choice but to step in and strike at the root.
The problem with an overt anti-insurgent campaign is that many Mexican citizens would side with the cartels and it could easily turn into another Afghanistan style quagmire. It’s not so easy to determine who’s “in” a criminal organization and who’s not especially in the rural areas where they basically run everything and act as defacto governments. The fallout would mean a gigantic stream of asylum seekers into the US similar to those we’ve seen into Europe from similar military campaigns. As soon as the US declares the cartels to be terrorist organizations (which they obviously are) every Mexican citizen would have legal justification to apply for asylum in the US.
Despite these challenges I think that it is highly likely that the US will intervene. As the CJNG pushes farther up north and diversifies the criminal markets they will inevitably bump heads US law enforcement and organized crime which will have no choice but to step in and strike at the root.
Thank you for your input.
I actually agree with your point about the terrorist designation. That's one nuance that a lot of people don't grasp.
End drug prohibition and put the cartels out of business overnight.