In his memoir titled “A Sacred Oath”, former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper cast shade on former President Donald Trump. According to Esper’s account, Trump came to him and inquired about the US military potentially firing missiles from inside the United States into Mexican territory with the goal of destroying drug labs and cartel outposts. On top of that, Trump asked if this hypothetical strike could be kept secret.
The problem with an overt anti-insurgent campaign is that many Mexican citizens would side with the cartels and it could easily turn into another Afghanistan style quagmire. It’s not so easy to determine who’s “in” a criminal organization and who’s not especially in the rural areas where they basically run everything and act as defacto governments. The fallout would mean a gigantic stream of asylum seekers into the US similar to those we’ve seen into Europe from similar military campaigns. As soon as the US declares the cartels to be terrorist organizations (which they obviously are) every Mexican citizen would have legal justification to apply for asylum in the US.
Despite these challenges I think that it is highly likely that the US will intervene. As the CJNG pushes farther up north and diversifies the criminal markets they will inevitably bump heads US law enforcement and organized crime which will have no choice but to step in and strike at the root.
Trump’s Cartel War That Didn’t (But Almost) Happened
The problem with an overt anti-insurgent campaign is that many Mexican citizens would side with the cartels and it could easily turn into another Afghanistan style quagmire. It’s not so easy to determine who’s “in” a criminal organization and who’s not especially in the rural areas where they basically run everything and act as defacto governments. The fallout would mean a gigantic stream of asylum seekers into the US similar to those we’ve seen into Europe from similar military campaigns. As soon as the US declares the cartels to be terrorist organizations (which they obviously are) every Mexican citizen would have legal justification to apply for asylum in the US.
Despite these challenges I think that it is highly likely that the US will intervene. As the CJNG pushes farther up north and diversifies the criminal markets they will inevitably bump heads US law enforcement and organized crime which will have no choice but to step in and strike at the root.
End drug prohibition and put the cartels out of business overnight.